In this series of articles, our foreign affairs editor Colin McGinness provides a concise roundup of the biggest geopolitical events from the past month.
Asia
The simmering border tensions between India and China boiled over this month into an international incident. While the details remain unclear, twenty Indian soldiers have been killed during conflicts with their Chinese counterparts along their shared border. The Chinese government has not announced any casualties on their side, and both nations have made diplomatic efforts to calm the situation. However there have been several anti-China protests across several Indian cities, and there have been widespread calls to boycott Chinese-made products.
A spate of mixed signals has plagued the relationship between North and South Korea this month. Initially, the North looked to be once again on the war path as it demolished its joint liaison office with the South in response to the leafletting done by defectors that escaped their regime. However, there now seems to be a de-escalation as Kim Jong-un announced he will ‘suspend military action’. This type of posturing has become fairly regular since the signing of the ceasefire, but following three years of peace talks, the status quo between the two nations seems to be holding firm.
Middle-East and North Africa
In a controversial move, outgoing Israeli Prime Minister Benyamin Netenyahu has announced his plans to “apply Israeli sovereignty” to settlements in the West Bank, but this has been widely criticized by the international community as an attempt to annex large swaths of land. Our Middle East correspondent Katie Dominy explains further in this month’s edition.
After five years of brutal conflict, the situation in Yemen continues to deteriorate. With the Covid pandemic still raging, the UN has warned that millions of people trapped in the country are at risk of starvation. The civil war has largely devolved into a proxy war between Saudi Arabia and Iran. There has been significant pressure on the Saudi’s allies, chiefly the UK and US, to impose an arms embargo on the country, in an attempt to stop some of the violence.
The Saudi Kingdom has announced that it will bar foreign visitors from attending this year’s Hajj in Mecca. This will have a huge impact on the millions of Muslims that had planned to make the pilgrimage this year, but sources within the Kingdom cite the need to prevent further Covid outbreaks.
Africa
After a devastating locust swarm tore through East Africa this year, crops in the region were severely damaged. Now there is fear that another swarm is on the horizon. If this comes to pass, there are concerns that the agricultural impacts could be catastrophic.
In a surprise turn of events, the opposition leader Lazarus Chakwera has won a re-run election in Malawi. The incumbent, President Peter Mutharika claimed victory during the February election, but this result was annulled by the nation’s top constitutional court which cited several irregularities in the polling results. The news of Mr. Chakwera’s victory still came as a surprise, and observers note that this is a positive step in the development of Malawian democracy.
Europe
After inconclusive presidential elections in Poland, the race will go on to a second vote between conservative incumbent Andrzej Duda and mayor of Warsaw, Rafal Trzaskowski. The vote has largely been seen as a referendum on how the ruling Law and Justice Party (PiS) have been running the country. The Polish government has faced sustained criticism from the European Union regarding it’s reforms of the judiciary. Should the liberal Trzaskowski win the presidency, he would have a powerful veto over the PiS controlled legislature.
Russia has begun voting on a controversial referendum that would allow Vladimir Putin to remain in power until 2036. The reforms would also give the president sweeping powers to nominate judges and prosecutors. Putin has stated that this is to ensure the stability of the country, but opposition leader Alexei Navalny claims that this could in effect mean that Putin will remain president for life. The vote is expected to last seven days and an estimated 110 million people are eligible to vote.
In France, President Emmanuel Macron was dealt a blow in local elections. The poll had been postponed since the first round of voting in March due to Covid-19, and appears to represent a repudiation of the government’s response to the pandemic. Macron’s La République en Marche party was swept aside by what early results indicated to be a surge in support for France’s environmentalist party, Europe Ecologie Les Verts. The far-right also saw devastating losses, with Rassemblement Nationale losing almost half of its local representation.
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Oceania
New Zealand remains one of the few countries that has managed to emerge from Covid-19 lockdown and prevent any further widespread outbreaks of the disease. Prime Minister Adirn has won praise for her handling of the crisis, and this will undoubtedly help her Labour Party at the polls in September when the next general election has been scheduled.
Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison has accused unnamed state actors as those responsible for a series of cyber attacks in the country. While refusing to disclose the name of the country, cyber intelligence experts have suggested that it could be Chinese interference. This theory has been amplified by the recent federal investigation into a local MP for potential illegal links to Chinese state agencies.
North America
Following several high-profile murders of African-Americans by police officers in the United States, protests have erupted in cities across the country and the world. Demands for systematic reform and a fundamental change to policing have fallen on deaf ears in the white house. President Trump has been incensed at what he believes is local government inaction, and has threatened to use the military to enforce curfew and support law enforcement.
A brazen assasination attempt has been made against the Mexico City Chief of police. Shot three times, Chief Omar García Harfuch is in a stable condition, though several of his bodyguards and a civilian passerby were killed in the incident. Twenty-eight people, believed to be associated with the New Generation cartel, attacked his vehicle in a private neighborhood.
As parts of the United States begin to re-open, the signs of a second wave of Covid infections are appearing. There have been nearly 2.5 million confirmed cases across the country and over 120,000 deaths related to the disease. States such as Texas that championed reopening as early as possible have had to walk back the easing of some restrictions.
South America
The Covid pandemic continues to rage through Brazil, the hardest hit country on the continent. With more than 1.1 million confirmed cases, there has been considerable pressure put on president Bolsonaro to address the crisis more seriously. A recent court order has mandated that the president begin wearing a mask around the federal district of Brasilia, which he has since been reluctant to do.
Colin McGinness is The International’s foreign affairs editor.