By Katie Dominy
“I declare today the resignation of this government. May God protect Lebanon.”
– Lebanon’s Prime Minister Hassan Diab
For many Lebanese citizens, this month’s announcement from Prime Minister Hassan Diab was a long time coming. Widespread disillusionment with Lebanon’s political system is not new, to which spikes in civil unrest in recent months can attest. However, the final nail in the coffin for Diab’s government was an event that, tragically, was completely avoidable.
On 4th August 2020, 2750 tonnes of ammonium nitrate exploded in a port warehouse in Beirut, Lebanon’s capital. The materials had been stored at the port for six years, without the necessary safety protocols. Security personnel had requested the removal of the substance on numerous occasions. In fact, Lebanon’s General Directorate of State Security issued a letter to the country’s leaders a fortnight before the blast, warning that the materials could pose a serious risk to safety and security. This prediction was correct; according to the UN, the death toll from the blast has risen to over 180, with some 6500 people injured. Furthermore, Marwan Aboud, the city’s Governor, estimated that as many as 300 000 Beirutis were rendered homeless due to more than $3 billion’s worth of infrastructural damage.
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In the wake of such political and literal debris, onlookers around the world have asked: how could such a disaster happen? What conditions have led to the current political instability? And can any tentative predictions be made about where the country is headed? Such questions are complex, but insight can be found by analysing Lebanon’s nuanced political landscape.
Lebanon’s Political Make-Up
Sandwiched between the Mediterranean Sea and its neighbours (Israel and Syria), Lebanon is a small country of around 7 million people (including its large Syrian and Palestinian refugee communities). Lebanon’s population is the most religiously diverse in the Middle East, with a total of 18 religious sects being officially recognised by the state. According to 2018 estimates, around 61% of people living in Lebanon are Muslim, 34% are Christian, and 5% are Druze. There are also very small numbers of Jewish, Baha’i, Hindu, and Buddhist minorities.
After gaining independence from France in 1943, Lebanon’s political landscape was not without conflict. Perhaps the most seismic upheaval was the Lebanese Civil War (a conflict with clear religious components), which lasted from 1975 until 1990. With the end of the Civil War came the Taif Agreement, solidifying a system of political sectarianism. In other words, this system divides parliamentary seats and government positions along religious lines, ensuring that all 18 of Lebanon’s religious sects are proportionally represented.
However inclusive this system of government may appear, in reality it has been ineffective on several counts; accusations of corruption, patronage, nepotism, and internal rivalries between different factions have been rife for years. At best, it can be seen as a government of severe division, where little progress can actually be made due to political deadlock and indecision between parties. At worst, it can be characterised as a system of elitism and deception, where individuals with long standing power manipulate the sectarian system to bolster their own positions and interests.
The October Revolution
It was under the weight of such political dissatisfaction that Lebanese citizens took to the streets in their hundreds of thousands in October 2019. Their list of charges against the government was long: a lack of access to safe drinking water, unreliable electricity supplies, dangerous infrastructure, rising food prices, economic collapse, and widespread unemployment were all seen as evidence of a lack of effective leadership. The final straw was a proposed tax on internet calls on platforms such as WhatsApp. This coined the term ‘the WhatsApp revolution’, and catalysed the gathering of protestors across the country from all religious and socio-economic groups.
This ‘October Revolution’ (the movement’s name within Lebanon) officially began on 17th October 2019. One protestor in Beirut, Dana Hammoud, described the atmosphere: “This is a revolution for the people… There are no flags but Lebanese flags. The whole country is united.” Schools, universities, and banks closed throughout Lebanon as the cross-societal movement spread, calling for an end to sectarian rule and the removal of the government.
Protests continued for weeks, and the government at the time eventually resigned. Hassan Diab assumed the role of Prime Minister in January 2020, but the worsening of Lebanon’s economic crisis led many to view this government as a continuation of corrupt leadership. The ‘October Revolution’ continued.
Anti-government protests were quelled somewhat by the outbreak of Covid-19, but this month’s explosion in Beirut has brought demonstrators back to the streets in revived fury and despair. Government mismanagement and lack of transparency are being blamed for the disaster, and there have been clashes between protestors and security forces. Amidst the destruction, Lebanese citizens from all walks of life have reached their breaking point: enough is enough.
What next for Lebanon?
Diab is currently acting as the interim Prime Minister, his resignation having been accepted by President Michel Aoun before a new government can be formed. For those demanding meaningful change, there is a glaring problem with this route forward: given the corrupt nature of Lebanese politics, it will be a challenge to find candidates within the current system with no links to corruption. Citizens looking for a complete overhaul of the system will be left unsatisfied by a cosmetic change in leadership, with no real change to the status quo of sectarian rule.
The international community has promised around a quarter of a billion Euros in aid relief after the explosion, on the condition that substantial political reform is carried out. Rima Majed, Professor of Sociology at the American University of Beirut, commented: “If there isn’t a serious will from the international community to create serious structural change in this country we are going towards civil war. There is no alternative.”
Lebanon has reached a critical point: is significant reform possible, or will the country descend into further unrest? The answer to this question is, thus far, unknown.
Katie Dominy is The International’s Middle East correspondent.