In this series of articles, our foreign affairs editor Colin McGinness provides a concise roundup of the biggest geopolitical events from the past month.
Asia
Ant Group, the Chinese tech-giant behind Alipay, has been forced to pause its attempts at listing shares on the Shanghai and Hong Kong stock exchanges. The announcement came as part of a dramatic last-minute government effort to better regulate the financial-tech industry. Before the cancellation, Ant Group had been predicted to sell shares worth up to $30 billion USD, making it the largest IPO in history. Some argue that the move was taken against Jack Ma specifically, as recent comments about the Chinese banking system may have run afoul of regulators.
India’s ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has secured yet another victory in the Bihar state elections. Through alliances made with local parties, the BJP was able to retain control of the state after a tough-fought race. With this being the first election since the start of the Covid pandemic, many viewed it as a referendum on how the central government has responded to the crisis in Bihar. While the result was closer than expected, it nonetheless reinforced the perception that the BJP and its charismatic leader Prime Minister Nahendra Modi are still popular across the country.
Africa
Negotiations for the African Continental Free Trade Agreement (ACFTA) continue as the coronavirus pandemic slows down trade across the continent. Initially slated to come into effect last July, negotiations have since snagged on sensitive issues – understandably, given that should it come into effect the ACFTA would create the largest free trade area in the world. Opponents argue that the tariffs collected by governments provide much-needed revenue during the current crisis, and removing them may also put domestic jobs at risk from cheaper foreign imports. Proponents of the agreement however argue that intra-Africa exports only make up 16% of trade on the continent and that lowering the barriers to trade with neighbours will encourage further cooperation.
The federal government of Ethiopia has launched an assault on the semi-autonomous northern region of Tigray, after of the province went ahead with previously postponed elections. Regional paramilitary groups with the backing of the provincial government then seized key transport links and infrastructure throughout the region. The response from the government in Addis Ababa has been swift, cutting communication lines in the region and mobilising the national army to retake it. Fighting has thus far been sporadic, but as the federal troops march on the province’s capital of Mekelle, experts have warned that the conflict could potentially lead to a humanitarian crisis across the region. Thousands of refugees have already fled to neighbouring Sudan, and with the final assault pending, this number is almost certain to inflate.
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Europe
Russia has negotiated a ceasefire between Azerbaijan and Armenia, essentially ending the conflict that has cost the lives of thousands of soldiers and civilians. In the agreement, Armenia has recognised the territorial gains made by Azerbaijan but refused to admit defeat. The conflict stemmed from the administration of the Nagorno-Karabakh region between the two countries. While internationally recognised as a part of Azerbaijani territory, it had been under the de facto control of Armenian separatists since a similar ceasefire deal was signed in 1994. Reports of atrocities committed by both sides combined with a lack of support for the deal from many Armenians means that this ceasefire will unlikely spell the decisive end of conflict in the region.
Diplomatic relations between Montenegro and Serbia have continued to deteriorate, with both nations expelling the other’s ambassadors. Both countries have maintained strained relations since Montenegro voted to separate from Serbia in 2006. The Montenegrin government announced the change in status, citing what it described as a consistent pattern of internal interference on the part of the Serbian state. The region has long been a hotbed for conflict, and other surrounding nations have urged calm. Negotiations to reinstate ambassadorial status will likely continue into the new year.
Middle-east and North Africa
Iran’s top nuclear scientist, Mohsen Fakhrizadeh, was assassinated outside of Tehran this month. Fakhrizadeh was instrumental in the Islamic Republic’s uranium enrichment programme, which had recently surpassed the limits set by the now defunct US-Iranian Nuclear Agreement. Statements from Iran’s Ministry of Defence have accused Israel of the killing, but the country has denied any involvement. Recent meetings between Israeli and Saudi government officials however have done little to dispel the rumours of external influence.
Latin America
The trial of over a dozen former state officials in Argentina has begun with regards to their ‘crimes against humanity’ committed during the country’s right-wing military dictatorship. From 1976-1983, countless political activists were ‘disappeared’ by the state security apparatus, and this particular trial is focused on one of the most notorious detention centres. Nearly 30,000 people were ‘disappeared’ during the military junta’s attempt to silence and remove left-wing opposition from the country. These detention centres and the individuals who ran them were integral to the running of the so-called ‘Dirty War’ that the generals waged on the Argentine public.
North America
Following the American general election, sitting president Donald Trump has still refused to admit defeat and concede. President-elect Joe Biden has decried this departure from norms, and has accused the Trump administration of intentionally hindering the peaceful transition of power. Conspiracy theories abound as Trump supporters claim that the election was stolen through widespread fraud and illegal voting. While the president’s legal team has scrambled around the country trying to gather evidence to support their claims, no proof has been forthcoming. This has not stopped the president from taking to Twitter and further spreading rumours and accusations of ‘election theft’.
Colin McGinness is The International’s foreign affairs editor