In a scene more apt for the hit British drama ‘Bodyguard’ than for a federal election, the right-wing frontrunner of the upcoming Brazilian presidential race was rushed to hospital after being stabbed in the stomach at a rally in the town of Juiz de Forza.
Despite spending a significant portion of the campaign in a recovery bed, Jair Bolsonaro has secured victory in Brazil’s Presidential election by a margin of 55% to 45%. After a steep victory in the first round of voting early in October, Mr. Bolsonaro representing the Social Liberal Party (PSL) faced off against Fernando Haddad of the Workers Party (PL) in the final round of the federal elections.
Mr. Haddad’s representation of the PL came relatively late in the race as the party’s former candidate was barred by from running for the nation’s highest office. Adding to the high drama that has consumed this election thus far, the barred candidate in question was former president Luis Inacio ‘Lula’ da Silva. While he was leading the polls before the Brazilian Supreme court ruled overwhelmingly to ban his presidential bid, he is also in the process of serving a twelve-year prison sentence on charges of corruption. That he remains so popular given the nature of his conviction and overall distrust in his fellow party members serves as a testament to his ability and charisma.
However, these are immaterial while he serves his prison sentence. A large portion of the country blames his party for creating the current economic difficulties facing Brazil, which had previously been a South American success story. The investigation that led to former president Lula’s arrest was part of the massive anti-corruption effort known as Operation Lava Jato, or ‘Car Wash’, so named for the gas station in Brasilia that was used to launder money worth more than nine billion US dollars. The investigation continued to grow and eventually led to the indictment and impeachment of Lula’s former cabinet minister and eventual successor, Dilma Rousseff, in 2016.
The PT and former presidents were not the only ones caught up in the ensuing investigations of corruption in the Brazilian government. Scandals revolving around kickbacks and government contracts rocked most of Brazil’s major parties, including the Brazilian Democratic Movement (MDB) and Brazilian Social Democratic Party (PSDB). While the investigation and subsequent convictions of influential business-people and politicians is proof that Brazilian institutions have made leaps and bounds in their judicial independence, the aftermath has not been completely positive.
While it was expected that Mr. Bolsonaro would take a fair share of votes during the first round, his remarkable 46 percent nearly reached the 50 percent threshold that would have eliminated the need for a second round entirely. Mr. Bolsonaro had previously been considered too radical for serious contention in national politics. Though he has been a fixture of the Brazilian legislature since the end of his military tenure, his stances against homosexuality, secularism and liberalism as well as praise for the former military dictatorship have made him distasteful to vast swathes of the electorate.
This is to say nothing of the outright offensive public comments he has made to and about women. However, in the wake of constant political scandal and a flagging economy, his brand of distasteful bombast has proven more palatable for some than the sourness of the entrenched parties. He has emerged as an alternative to the political class that many Brazilians blame for the country’s misfortune, though his prolonged public life would suggest he is not quite the outsider he often claims.
Additionally, there is a resistance, particularly among female voters, to his candidacy which culminated in the formation of a campaign calling itself ‘#EleNao’ or #NotHim in English. The tens of thousands of women that took to the street in protest of his presidential bid hoped to broadcast their message to potential swing voters, but their efforts were eventually in vain.
The rise of populist candidates and parties has become a familiar story across a wide spectrum of democratic states in recent years. Whether it be from the perceived slights from a so-called ‘liberal elite’, the very real consequences of poorly managed globalisation or a reaction to migration policies; political pundits the world over have been trying to diagnose the overarching populist lurch within very different electorates. However, these analyses often ignore the sometimes more overwhelming internal dynamics that can push a population into the arms of a populist strongman. In the case of Brazil, these factors have undeniably played a part in the rise of Mr. Jair Bolsonado.