By Colin McGinness
Ongoing protests in Bangkok continue to rock Thailand, as they enter the fifth straight month of organised demonstrations. These demonstrations have captured the attention of many foreign news outlets, and have dominated news in the country. But to many casual observers, these protests have come as a shock. Nominally a democracy, the country is ruled by a military government that came to power through a coup in 2014. Since then, the redesigned constitution of the country has heavily favoured the nation’s military leaders and their supporters, with opposition lawmakers routinely jailed and parties banned. Initially the demands of the protestors mirrored these grievances. These were the resignation of Prime Minister Pryut Chan-o-cha, the rewriting of the constitution, and an end to political arrests. As protests continue – and with no cessation in sight – many are asking whether or not the government will concede some of the protestors’ demands. This is highly unlikely, says Dr. Enze Han, a professor of politics and international relations at the University of Hong Kong. In an exclusive interview with The International, Dr. Han stated that while the protests may be able to maintain momentum in Bangkok, it is unlikely that support outside of the capital will increase to such a degree that the military government feels threatened. In fact, he argues, because the military has thus far relied solely on police handling of the protests it shows that there is not much concern within the government for escalation. Regardless of this, these protests have marked a distinct shift from those of the past and it is worth noting that these changes will have significant implications for both the demonstrations, and the country.
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The Likelihood of Reform
As the protests have rumbled on, they have taken an unexpected repositioning in demands as well. Thailand is a constitutional monarchy, with the king as revered head of state. The country also has strict lese-majeste laws that essentially criminalises outspoken criticism of the monarchy. Regardless of the law, many Thais have supported the monarchy irrespective of political tilt, and the monarchy has long been a unifying force within the country. The current monarch, King Vajiralongkorn, may be changing that. He spends the vast majority of his time living in Germany, where he is often the subject of tabloid articles regarding the various scandals and ‘court’ intrigues that have followed him throughout his stint abroad. Some protestors, though, have no qualms about risking potential retribution and have begun openly calling for reforms to the monarchy. This is novel in itself, as anti-monarchical actors in Thai politics have had to operate in somewhat secrecy. This is what many foreign news outlets point to when describing the protests as dramatically different from those before. From reading the headlines that have been published, it seems as though a revolution is on the horizon. However the novelty does not necessarily indicate any mass changes in public opinion. As Dr. Han points out, the monarchy still enjoys vast support from the public, and has hosted rival events and demonstrations with supporters in the capital. In the long term, this may diminish the likelihood of government reform, as this issue may further divide the urban and rural factions within the country.
The ‘Milk Tea Alliance’
Another focus of the international media has been the so-called “milk tea alliance”, named for the beverage popular in Thailand, Hong Kong and Taiwan. Some media outlets have pointed to slogans and tactics similar to those used during the 2019 anti-extradition bill protests in Hong Kong as proof of the link. And while it is true that some protestors from both hotspots have shared messages of support on social media, the actual similarities are likely outweighed by the sheer number of differences. For example, there has been a flurry of international responses regarding the protests in Hong Kong, with some high profile organisers speaking with US officials. However, due to the US relationship with the Thai government, Dr. Han explained that it is highly unlikely that the American government will insert itself into the conflict like it did in the case of Hong Kong. The nation that has hosted the Thai king for the bulk of the year, Germany, has also remained largely silent. And support from other countries is unlikely to come to the aid of protestors. Another key difference lies in the sheer demographic diversity of Thailand. As mentioned before, the support for the protests aims largely split along urban/rural and educational divides, with the bulk of protestors being university students from the urban centre of Bangkok. While the demonstrations in Bangkok are large and attracting international attention, they may not be representative of public opinion at large. This is in comparison to the initial protest marches in Hong Kong which were attended by over two million people, making up over a quarter of the largely urban territory’s population.
Waiting It Out
Regardless of their likelihood of success, it appears that the protests are not going to end quickly as the government takes a ‘wait it out’ approach. In an attempt to end the crisis, Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha has announced a ‘Reconciliation Committee’ made up of members of parliament including members of the opposition. However opposition lawmakers have largely refused to participate as some view the committee as an attempt to stall while the protests peter out. With gridlock maintained and the odds of acceding to protestor demands dwindling, a stalemate looks likely. This is not guaranteed however, and should there be escalation from either the protestors or the police response, the situation may intensify. According to Dr. Han, once the armed forces start taking a more active role, that is when people should be worried. Thailand has a reputation among tourists, which many would argue is rightly deserved, as a friendly place. While this may be the case, the ‘land of smiles’ is no stranger to political violence and further escalation could lead to a repeat of previous military crackdowns.
Dr. Enze Han is an expert in South-east Asian politics and has recently published a book on state formation in the border regions between China and smaller nations like Thailand and Myanmar. The International extends its thanks to the professor for sitting down with us and taking time out of his schedule to share his insights with our readers. A link to the book can be found here, and his website can be found at this link as well.
Colin McGinness is The International’s foreign affairs editor