By Nikhil Bandlish
Amidst what has been one of the most tumultuous periods in recent political, social, and medical history, 2021 may be the year that planet Earth attempts to turn the page of what has undoubtedly been a testing chapter.
For the Western world, the last few years may have been characterised by the rampant polarisation of political ideologies; The U.S. presidency, the ‘conclusion’ of the Brexit formalities, and Climate Change have all been significant elements. Yet somehow, they do not even come close to painting the full picture of the 2020s and, by extension, the 21st Century.
For Venezuela, recent years have been marked by poverty, malnutrition, alleged mismanagement of public resources and any number of social issues that have dogged a country boasting the world’s largest reserves of oil. The situation has been exasperated by COVID-19, but the fruits of what was once believed to be a fresh start for the country under the leadership of Hugo Chávez and his Bolivarian influences have yet to be seen.
With socialist and populist values becoming commonplace in Latin America, the presidency under Hugo Chávez promised to nationalise key industries and levy increased taxes on the upper echelons of society. These policies did prove popular in the early 2000s; increased oil-prices led to the government implementing a number of ‘Bolivarian Missions’ (social programs), aimed at providing access to housing, healthcare and education. This presidency brought with it optimism and hope for the lower-classes, spear-headed by a man who was heavily revered by supporters and feared by critics. His death in 2013 served only to bolster the profile among the modern-socialist community, and his mantle was taken up by his vice-president at the time, Nicolás Maduro.
While You’re Here…
Why not take a moment to subscribe to The International’s free monthly newsletter? It takes seconds to sign up, and you’ll stay up to date with the stories shaping our world at a pace that won’t overwhelm.
Succession
Born into a working-class family in the sprawling metropolitan city of Caracas, Nicolás Maduro is well known for his ruthless approach to politics. He has become synonymous with the concept of “taking no prisoners”; an estimated 9000 extrajudicial killings at the hands of the state security apparatus has propelled Maduro to the height of infamy in Latin America. He is however, the legitimate heir to Chávez having served in a variety of positions under the former leader, including the position of vice-president at the time of Chávez’s death in 2013.
While Chávez could arguably fall back on the popularity of his ‘cult of personality’ during troubling times, Maduro had no such background with which he could endear himself to the masses. Government spending and borrowing in the 2000’s was at record levels under Chávez, so when the proverbial house of cards gradually collapsed due to large debt and plummeting oil prices, Maduro was left holding the bag,
Troubled Waters
Chávez oversaw the highest GDP growth in modern Venezuelan history during his term; over 18% in 2004 alone, with a net growth upwards of 40% during the course of his presidency. In the years following his death, inflation rates soared, as did poverty rates, malnutrition and healthcare costs. After Maduro’s election victory, inflation rose an estimated 1,300,000% by the end of 2018. Basic necessities such as food, medicine and water suddenly became unattainable for large portions of society as prices doubled fortnightly.
Maduro believes these issues have stemmed from “imperialists” from the west; the U.S., EU as well as a number of Latin American neighbours who have over time, voiced their opposition to his leadership, with the U.S. actively imposing economic sanctions on the country. However, this rhetoric has had little sway over the Venezuelan population; according to the UN, an average of 5,500 people fled the country every day throughout 2018. Compounded by a recent spread of Malaria, the COVID-19 virus, and a significant lack of medical supplies available to treat them, Venezuelans have flocked to neighbouring Colombia and Brazil for respite.
The sum total of these issues? Nine out of ten people are unable to afford their daily food requirements. Due to increased prices, they are forced to choose between the basic food groups, resulting in a lack of nutrients and vitamins. On the social front, fewer people are able to access higher education within the country. It seems that what seemed like a stroke of luck during the 2000’s has done irreparable damage to the economy and society.
It is worth noting that these policies have not gone unchallenged. In 2007, protests erupted as Chávez attempted to reform the Venezuelan Constitution. His goal: to initiate a socialist state by abolishing presidential term-limits, ending the autonomy of the Central Bank, increasing state social benefits, among other proposals aimed at expanding the powers of the executive branch. One of the key leaders to emerge from these protests was the little-known Juan Guaidó, a man who would become a household name in the following years.
‘Western Intervention’
Having established in previous articles for The International that acts of intervention are rife in Latin America, it should come as no surprise that the U.S. has a vested interest in the future of Venezuelan politics.
Guaidó remains a staunch critic of Maduro, a sentiment exemplified by his attempted ‘coup’ in early 2019. Having contested the election results that saw Maduro re-elected, Guaidó swore himself in as president, with the U.S. the first to officially recognise him. This would be followed by Canada and the EU, along with a number of Latin American countries. Yet despite this, Maduro maintained the support of the military who have historically played an important role in settling political disputes. Guaidó and his allies were also able to take control of several Venezuelan embassies around the world, so the use of the word ‘coup’ to describe these circumstances seems appropriate, albeit not yet official.
While life continued as usual for the average Venezuelan, it wasn’t until May of 2020 that the second international flashpoint occurred. Two US military veterans were arrested along with military-grade equipment in an operation that sought to “liberate” Venezuela from the leadership of Maduro. Subsequent investigations found evidence that private military firm Silvercorp USA had been contracted to remove Maduro and his closest allies from the country. If anything, this failed attempt boosted Maduro’s profile; the U.S. became the scapegoat and the face of a previously opaque enemy in capitalism.
The Spoils of War
It wasn’t until as recently as last week that the EU officially dropped their recognition of Juan Guaidó, while the U.S. has also quietly stopped referring to Guaidó as the legitimate president. It would seem, then, that Maduro has successfully repelled the ‘coup’. Whether this was due to the continued support of the military and large sections of the public, or his ability to stifle his critics in-country, Maduro has proven himself to be a stubborn adversary.
While his grip on power is strenuous, his victory comes as no respite for those living below the poverty line, a segment of Venezuelan society that continues to grow.
Hugo Chávez left a legacy that outgrew his principles. The hope for a prosperous, socialist Venezuela has been replaced by the reality of an economic crisis of huge proportions, which show no indication of slowing down. Uncertainty is certainly a mild way to describe the situation, but one thing remains clear; this tale has many more chapters to come.
Nikhil Bandlish is The International’s Latin America correspondent.